
Vol.1 Issue 44 January 1st. , 2004
Send comments and
suggestions. or get more information at
info@NataliePace.com
Quote
of the Week:
"Opsware has more potential for significant, sustained growth
than any other software company we know of, bar none. Simply
put, we believe it deserves to be placed in 'the next big thing'
category."
-
American Technology Research.
12.18.2003
|
- iSophia's
COMPANY OF THE YEAR: Opsware (NASDAQ: OPSW). Marc
Andreessen's 2nd Billion-Dollar Idea. By Natalie Wynne
Pace, CEO, iSophia.
- Success
Secrets of CEOs features an exclusive interview with
DOT COM SURVIVORS: Opsware Chairman, Marc Andreessen,
and Opsware CEO, Ben Horowitz. These guys launched a
successful IPO in April of 2001, when IPOs were just
a nostalgic memory of the glorious, roaring 90's past.
- Leaders
of the Pack: iSophia's featured companies outperformed
the markets again last year.Five companies more
than doubled and one brought 21X returns. Catch up on
our top 14 picks, and the secrets to our success.
- Bull
Run 2004? Predictions from the ProsÉ with a Rebuttal
from the Bears.
- Girl's
Guide to Profit Taking. Don't let fear of taxes
be the death of your capital gains!
- Q&A
with money managers: Paul Woods, Tom Weary and Meri
Anne Beck-Woods.
- Beauty's
Next Big Thing: Non-Surgical Face Lifts. Save yourself
tens of thousands of dollars and a whole lot of pain
and bruising.
- iSophia's
Non-Profit COMPANY OF THE YEAR: Co-Abode.com is
a national, non-profit organization where single mothers
can meet to share living space, resources, finances
and child-rearing duties. It's a mom-matching, house-sharing
service giving women and their children the opportunity
to share a home and family life together, often during
tough transitions.
- Calendar:
Galas, networking, benefits, seminars and special
opportunities! Check out what's happening online at
the Calendar section of the iSophia website.
- Companies
in the News... News highlights, as reported by
the most respected sources in the world. Alphabetized
for easy reference.

|
 |
|
|
iSophia's
COMPANY OF THE YEAR: Opsware (NASDAQ: OPSW).
Marc Andreessen's 2nd Billion-Dollar Idea. By Natalie
Wynne Pace, CEO, iSophia
 |
|
Marc
Andreessen
Chairman, Opsware
Inventor of the Browser, Netscape
|
Marc Andreessen (Netscape, Mr. Browser) strikes gold again with super cyber server
software designed to disable defunct (or illegal) software, deploy
worm patches at the click of a mouse and other solutions that shave
hundreds of manpower hours off of Fortune 100 companies' technology
budgets, all while increasing efficiency, performance and eliminating
human error.
Opsware's
first 2004 award, Company of the Year, is being given by our financial
media organization, iSophia, but its all-star reputation is becoming
quite the buzz among corporate IT departments and technology analysts.
American Technology Research says, "Opsware has more potential
for significant, sustained growth than any other software company
we know of, bar none. Simply put, we believe it deserves to be
placed in Ôthe next big thing' category." Electronic Data
Systems' CEO (NYSE: EDS), Michael Jordan, has called Opsware a
"critical factor in our ability to move forward." Hewlett-Packard
(NYSE: HPQ), now the world's 3rd largest provider of
IT services, is an authorized partner of Opsware, offering Opsware
software and services to its global clients, opening up what American
Technology Research estimates will become an $11.3 billion market
by 2006 . You may not have heard of Opsware yet, but chances are
that by this time next year, the company will have made a few
more high-profile headlines. Hewlett-Packard and Electronic Data
Systems Bank are certainly banking on Marc Andreessen's 2nd
Billion-Dollar Idea.
Opsware's
growth has come about quietly over the last three years, as they
contracted strategic partnerships with Electronic Data Systems
and Hewlett-Packard, and sold their automated data center software
to a laundry list of marquee Fortune 100 customers. To date,
Opsware's client list includes a Who's Who of top corporations
on Wall Street, including Electronic Data Systems (NYSE: EDS),
Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC), Hewlett Packard (NYSE: HPQ), Procter
& Gamble Co. (NYSE: PG) , Altria (NYSE: MO), the Defense Department
and the UK government, to name a few. With data center service
corporations, like EDS and HP, hawking their software, Opsware's
list of new clients may start giving the shipping department a
bit of a challenge. American Technology Research writes, "We
believe Opsware is on the cusp of exploding growth that will meet
or exceed 90% for at least the next two years with potential for
significant upside even to these seemingly lofty expectations."
When Opsware
was first featured in the iSophia's December 15, 2002 issue, the
share price was trading at under two bucks and the company was
just months away from a NASDAQ delisting. This year, Opsware's
share price has gone as high as $9.00, and the company is, in
the words of Ben Horowitz, "throwing off cash," having
made its first acquisition--Tangram Enterprise Solutions. Marc
Andreessen, feeling confident that Opsware will become THE independent
company in ADCs (automated data centers), plans to do more software
acquisitions over the next three to five years. According to Andreessen,
currently "there are opportunities to buy great technology
at the right price."
Were the iSophia
reporters psychic last year? Not really. It doesn't take a genius
to figure out that the guy who invented the Web browser at age
23 and his best friend, a guy who employees would walk through
fire for, wouldn't be pouring their own money into a business
during the worst market downturn of recent memory if they didn't
believe they were onto the next big thing, even if no one else
could figure out what the heck they were selling. So, just what
is Opsware? Why does Hewlett-Packard call their relationship "a
winning combination," while Electronic Data Systems' CEO,
Michael Jordan, admits that Opsware's alliance is a "critical
factor" in EDS' recovery plan?
It's just
not that easy to explain. When asked to give Opsware's elevator
pitch, Opsware's CEO, Ben Horowitz, came back with a paragraph.
As companies
move to web-based computing they get a lot more servers, which
are difficult to manage and control. All kinds of problems
can arise--security, quality and worms. There is a huge cost
to manage all of the new software and equipment. Opsware helps
to systemize, rationalize and improve all of that by automating
the data center. Think of it like automating an auto manufacturing
shop. There are huge benefits, but it is a comprehensive effort.
As you go in, you have to have a deep level of engagement.
You can't sell it over the phone.
Opsware's
software product is difficult to sum up in a snappy sentence,
but the IT savings tend to catch a CEO's ear, as does the mention
of exterminating worms, viruses and hackers. As Andreessen says,
"The Microsoft worm brought down Microsoft's own data bases.
You have the vendors themselves running their own software unpatched!
It's not that they're not smart." So, errr, if they're smart
and they had the cure in their hands, why didn't they swallow
the antidote before the attack, or at least right after? With
one server, according to Marc Andreessen, it's easy to do. With
50,000 servers, it's really hard to do. "Patches come out
every week. Every time you install a new patch, you run the risk
of destabilizing the software that is running. Our software deploys
that patch out automatically."
Opsware also
keeps corporate web sites up and running during times of extreme
increases in traffic, such as occurs during the holidays. Opsware's
software (in use by Loudcloud at the time) kept news sites like
FoxNews and USAToday running on 9.11.01, when the number of visits
to these sites increased by the power of ten, by allowing
the company to scale up the number of servers supporting those
sites quickly and automatically. (The server provisioning also
scales back efficiently when things return to normal.) More recently,
EDS used Opsware to automate the deployment of a patch to keep
EDS' clients up when the Microsoft SQL Slammer worm took down
even Microsoft's systems. Rather than patching each server
manually, EDS used Opsware automation to patch numerous servers
simultaneously. As a result, companies need fewer people maintaining
servers, which reduces labor costs significantly. Additionally,
downtime from operator error is improved drastically, improving
the quality of the customer's experience. As MetLife's Vice President,
IT, puts it, Opsware frees "associates to focus on areas
that better utilize their skills and expertise."
Imagine an
automated cyber handyman (Opsware) that sweeps up the outdated
documents and applications messes of the 90s, deploys worm patches
across thousands of servers in thirty minutes, standardizes software
upgrades, allocates additional servers for excessive web-hits
during holiday seasons and rolls back in the aftermath, disables
defunct or pirate software, like LimeWire and Kazaa, and all this
while REDUCING technology budgets for mega-corporations by MILLIONS
EVERY year. "EDS reports saving $100 million each year
as a result of our software," says Ben Horowitz. American
Technology Research notes that an initial investment in Opsware
pays itself back within seven months, and, for big corporations,
continues an ongoing return of up to $20.5 million per year, with
just $2 million/year maintenance costs, by driving down the administrator
to server ratio.
Needless to
say, when high performance meets massive cost savings, the clients
tend to be pretty happy. It's not surprising that Opsware receives
"glowing reports." What is a little surprising is that
the company, to date, doesn't have any standout competition. When
asked about other companies trying to steal away a portion of
Opsware's market, Ben Horowitz says simply, "Good luck."
"One thing that I do know is how hard it was to build Opsware,"
Ben says. "I'm not concerned about someone trying to do itÉ
We get great feedback from industry analysts and customers. We
have a healthy lead and we're highly differentiated."
It's not a
pretty job, but in a world of worms and hackers, someone's got
to do it, and that someone could be sitting on his 2nd
billion dollar idea. In fact, if Opsware does for cyber automation
what the assembly line did for factories, Marc Andreessen's second
cutting edge technological invention could stomp all over the
$10 billion price tag of his firstÑNetscape. Of course, Opsware
has $9.5 billion to go to get there, but this is just year one
into the return of corporate capital spending, and each time a
worm takes down a corporation's IT functionality, you can expect
more and more spotlights to be cast upon the one company that
gets worm patches deployed across tens of thousands of servers
in under thirty minutes. Hewlett-Packard is banking on it, as
is Electronic Data Services, Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz.
Yes, the rumors are true, insiders did help buoy up the sinking
Opsware (then, Loudcloud) $6.00 share price during the ill-timed
IPO back in March of 2001.
So
what could put the screws on this golden opportunity? Hasn't Andreessen
been characterized as the "enfant terrible," the guy
you have to keep away from employees?
Let it be
known, Marc's the famous guy, the visionary, the chairman,
but Ben's in charge. "Somebody has to be in charge,"
Marc says. "For us, that's Ben." Both men characterize
their relationship as friendship based in trust, communication
and respect, and the ability to process information with an "engineer's
mind." Decisions are arrived at empirically, based upon data
more than emotions. Some very hard calls had to be made over the
past three years to keep Opsware alive, business choices that
speak volumes on the commitment, intelligence and prescience of
Andreessen and Horowitz. Any wrong move might have sunk the company,
as so many other technology companies before them, including Digex,
Exodus, Data Return and Digital Island. In hindsight, the judgment
to do a 3rd equity round when insiders were pushing
for a debt round likely kept the company from forced insolvency,
but it was bringing in Electronic Data Systems last August 2003
that truly saved the day.
When Opsware,
formerly Loudcloud, was burning through $12 million a month and
saw its share price sag to 39 cents, the cash bleed had to be
clogged and FAST. It wasn't just a matter of laying off staff.
It required rethinking the entire business model. It required
contacting their most formidable competitor in the managed services
business with an unusual proposition. Not just, "Want to
buy us out," but, "Want to buy us out AND keep us afloat
by licensing our proprietary software?" The end result of
that deal was that Electronic Data Systems bought the managed
services division of Loudcloud, Loudcloud became a software company
called Opsware, and $65 million exchanged hands, with a promise
of another $52 million in licensing fees for the next three years.
In 2003, EDS
was responsible for 90% of Opsware's revenue, though with the
addition of Hewlett-Packard as a strategic Opsware partner, that
percentage should begin leveling out as early as 2004. Certainly,
admits CEO, Ben Horowitz, "It's the most relaxed I've felt
going into a year for about four years." Good news for Opsware
and Opsware shareholders. Bad news for Sunnyvale, California residents,
who'll be listening to happy Ben cruising around in his Lincoln
Navigator, with the loudest sub-woofers Andreessen's ever heard,
blaring rap music.
Although Ben
is more apt to quote rap artists in his management meetings, he
is up on his Schumpeter, which, he believes is another reason
to believe that NASDAQ's return this time around may be more stable
and enduring. In an interview last year, Ben had this prediction:
This is
a cycle that is pretty similar to what happened in the early
80s, when a record amount of venture capital was invested
in PCsÉThere was a huge crash and most companies got wiped
out. Venture capital dropped to pre-1985 levels, but the technology
kept advancing. In 1990, Windows 3.0 was a pretty interesting
product. That was the beginning of the PC boom. The Internet
cycle is similar. You had a huge investment in IT spending
in the mid-90s. Then the huge crash came, but the technology
keeps growing. There should be another growth cycle that will
be bigger and longer, and there could be an opportunity to
make money on that second growth cycle. Joseph Schumpeter,
a renowned economist, wrote a theory on that in his book,
Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy. A good time to
invest tends to be after the initial crash.
Investors
who believed Ben's NASDAQ: the Sequel Theory and bought Opsware
at its 39-cent share price have seen up to 20X returns.
Can
Marc Andreessen's little $523 million dollar unknown become the
dominant corporation in a market expected to expand to $11.3 billion
by 2006, according to American Technology Research?
"The
guy isn't just a smart guy in his sector, like Ben and I,"
Jonathan Daniel, co-founder of BigChampagne.com and brother of
Ben Horowitz, says about Marc Andreessen. "He invented the
Web browser when he was 23. The guy is a genius." Let's not
forget that Marc Andreessen, the inventor/genius who brought the
world into the 21st century with the point and click
browser, also CAPITALIZED upon his invention (something many inventors
fail to do), reportedly pocketing almost a billion of the $10
billion Netscape sale to AOL. It's hard to imagine a company with
more genius than Marc and more business acumen and employee finesse
than Ben Horowitz. Now, with the home-run hitting sales and distribution
players of Electronic Data Systems and Hewlett-Packard batting
on the Opsware team, it doesn't seem too risky to predict pennant
years for Marc Andreessen's 2nd billion-dollar idea.
To read more
about Opsware, be sure to check out the feature interview with
Opsware Chairman, Marc Andreessen, and CEO, Ben Horowitz, featured
below.
Full Disclosure:
Natalie Wynne Pace owns a small number of Opsware's 81.09 million
outstanding shares (630 shares as of press date).
|
|
Success
Secrets of CEOs features an exclusive interview with DOT COM SURVIVORS:
 |
|
Ben
Horowitz
CEO, Opsware
|
Success
Secrets of CEOs features DOT COM SURVIVORS: Opsware Chairman,
Marc Andreessen, and Opsware CEO, Ben Horowitz. These guys launched
a successful technology IPO in April of 2001, when NASDAQ was
a four-letter word and IPO's were a nostalgic memory of the glorious,
roaring 90's past.
Everyone knows
Netscape and Marc Andreessen, the boy genius who invented the
Browser, but few people, even financial professionals, have heard
of Opsware (NASDAQ: OPSW). Many who remember Marc Andreessen's
ill-timed 2001 IPO, Loudcloud, presume that Loudcloud failed.
But Loudcloud didn't fail. It became the software company Opsware,
an amazing 2001 IPO dotcom SUCCESS story that swerved off the
road to ruin, from $12 million monthly cash burn last year, to
cash positive this year. Opsware has emerged quite the technology
phoenix, moving into acquisitions and expansion stage, with its
December 2003 purchase of Tangram Enterprise Solutions and its
strategic partnerships with Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) and Electronic
Data Systems (NYSE: EDS).
If you still
aren't compelled to believe that Opsware has any chance of being
as important a company as Oracle, or even Netscape (Andreessen's
first billion-dollar idea), consider that Opsware has seen up
to 20X returns on share price in the last twelve months, and is
currently utilized by some of the wealthiest corporations and
nations on the planetÑincluding Electronic Data Systems (NYSE:
EDS), Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ), Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC),
Procter & Gamble Co. (NYSE: PG) , Altria (NYSE: MO), the Defense
Department and the UK government,. American Technology Research
says Opsware "deserves to be placed in Ôthe next big thing'
category that investors have been searching for since the dot.com
collapse."
Opsware is
headed up by Ben Horowitz, CEO, under the aegis of Marc Andreessen,
Opsware's celebrity visionary. Though this may be the first time
you're hearing about Opsware, if I were a betting gal, and I am
(see full disclosure below), I'd place Marc's second appearance
on the cover of Time magazine on or before year-end 2007,
just about the time when I'm taking outer-worldly profits on my
Opsware investment. (If nothing else, at least you know I'm a
gambling gal, making such a lofty statement as that.) For more
information on why Opsware is iSophia's COMPANY OF THE YEAR, see
the feature article above.
NatalieÑHere
I am telling the world that Opsware is the Company of the Year,
and most people haven't heard of your company and don't have a
clue what product or service you sell. What's the simple, elevator
pitch of Opsware?
Ben--As
companies move to web-based computing they get a lot more servers,
which are difficult to manage and control. All kinds of problems
can arise--security, quality and worms. There is a huge cost
to manage all of the new software and equipment. Opsware helps
to systemize, rationalize and improve all of that by automating
the data center. Think of it like automating an auto manufacturing
shop. There are huge benefits, but it is a comprehensive effort.
As you go in, you have to have a deep level of engagement. You
can't sell it over the phone.
NatalieÑStraightening
up, cleaning up and locking up. Sounds to me like cyber housecleaning.
Marc, can you pare Opsware's niche down to a sentence?
MarcÑWe
automate these modern data center markets, literally hundreds
of thousands of servers and complicated software, making things
run much better and faster overall.
Natalie
--With significant cost savings to the mega-corporations that
you serve, right?
Marc--Better
faster cheaper.
BenÑElectronic
Data Systems (NYSE: EDS), the company that bought our managed
care business in June 2002 for $63.6 million, and licensed Opsware
software for three years for $52 Million, reports saving $100
million each year as a result of our software. EDS plans to roll
out Opsware on 50,000 servers, over 154 data centers, to achieve
these cost savings.
Marc--Organizations
spend hundreds of hours and hundreds of thousands of dollars installing
and implementing huge servers, new web sites and applications.
They have to continue to do that, but they also have to clean
up the mess of the Ô90s. There is a need to cut costs, improve
security and build a platform for the next 5-10 years. There is
a constant need for new systems and new software. Companies use
Opsware to clean up, as well as to launch and support the new
platform. For people who spend a lot of time following where the
technology goes, they understand what we do.
NatalieÑOpsware
has been called "nirvana" by the Steve Bozzo, MetLife's
CIO, and "an antidote to the chaos of the modern data center,"
by Paul Sloan, writer, Business 2.0. Can you give us a concrete
example of the benefits of Opsware?
Marc--
Opsware (in use by Loudcloud at the time) kept news sites like
FoxNews and USAToday running on 9.11.01, when the number of visits
to these sites increased by the power of ten, by allowing
the company to scale up the number of servers supporting those
sites quickly and automatically. More recently, EDS used Opsware
to automate the deployment of a patch to keep EDS' clients up
when the Microsoft SQL Slammer worm took down even Microsoft's
systems. Rather than patching each server manually, EDS used
Opsware automation to patch numerous servers simultaneously. Using
Opsware to automate IT operations such as server provisioning
and patch management, companies achieve a significant improvement
in their server to system administrator ratios, thereby reducing
their labor costs. In addition, companies benefit from virtual
elimination of downtime due to operator error, significantly improving
the quality of their operations.
NatalieÑSo
the Microsoft worm had an existing patch? Corporations, including
Microsoft, could have protected themselves?
Marc--It
turns out the major problem with viruses is that everyone has
firewalls and anti-viruses, but they still get seriously damaged.
The problem is never the case that the hacker has discovered a
new defect or vulnerability. He is attacking a known vulnerability.
The patch was likely issued two months ago. You're going to apply
the patch next month, but he slips in there before you do it.
Well, why doesn't everyone keep his system patched? With one server,
it's easy to do. With 50,000 servers, it's really hard to do.
Patches come out every week. Every time you install a new patch,
you run the risk of destabilizing the software that is running.
Opsware gives you that system. Corporations didn't need this five
years ago. There weren't that many servers and these attacks weren't
taking place. They need it now.
NatalieÑBut
how does Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) go down for a day, when they've
already designed the fix?
Marc--You
have the vendors themselves running their own software unpatched!
Their own people had not applied the patch to their own servers.
It's not that they're not smart. Our software deploys that patch
out automatically. It's a great point of sales.
NatalieÑCould
Opsware potentially be as big of an idea as the browser and Netscape?
Marc--Netscape
sold out at the right time, and the numbers worked well. Netscape
was worth $10 billion to investors off that deal. In new markets,
often people sell out too early. Acquirers aren't willing to pay
that much until it's proven. $30-$50 million dollar companies
who sold out a year ago, in every case, sold out too early. Within
a year, we increased our market capitalization to $600-700 million,
which is a mistake by a factor of 10 to anyone who sold out too
early. Our market is starting to form now. Even if our strategy
is to sell out at some point, the right thing to do is to wait.
The last company sold gets the best price, and often it isn't
the best company. We hope all of our competitors get bought. Big
companies almost always kill them. The mortality rate is almost
100%. Sun Microsystems bought Century Run. They just killed it.
It was a spectacular system. When the software startup is not
formed yet, and you put it into context with a big company, it's
like Enron. Where did it go? We love when that happens. Our best-case
scenario is that all our competitors get bought, and we're the
only company left standing.
NatalieÑAfter
the war you've been through for the past three years--launching
the company in March 9, 2001, hitting a 39 cent share price last
year, barely escaping a $12 million a month cash bleed which was
leading the company toward bankruptcy (the fate of so many competitors),
wouldn't a buy-out from your new partner, Hewlett-Packard, (NYSE:
HPQ) be, perhaps, nirvana? I mean, surely IBM and Sun Microsystems
are looking to compete in your market.
Ben--One
thing that I do know is how hard it was to build Opsware. I'm
not concerned about someone trying to do it. My advice to them
is "good luck." We get great feedback from industry
analysts and customers. We have a healthy lead and we're highly
differentiated.
NatalieÑYes,
okay, but what price could a corporation, say Hewlett Packard,
pay to buy Opsware from you?
Marc--Our
goal is to be a very successful independent company. There should
be one very successful independent company in this market. We
want to be that company.
Ben--We're
not for sale. We've come a long way since Oki Dog. We're happy
with the position we're in. We're looking to build a company at
this point.
iSophia
note: errr. Oki Dog is the horrible fast food, rot gut grill that
Ben relied on during those lean college years, when the wallets
were bare, before Marc's genius brought the Internet into the
laps of users around the world and Ben began master-minding his
plan to own the Raiders and open up the world's first Hip-Hop
Hall of Fame.
NatalieÑYou've
certainly come a long way from last year's 39 cents share price
and possible delisting from NASDAQ. In fact, you've been making
acquisitions of your own, expanding your own business model. Let's
talk Tangram Enterprise Solutions. What inspired this year-end
acquisition? Taxes? Increasing your customer base? Expanding your
software functionality?
Marc--One
is there have been a rising amount of software M&A [mergers
and acquisitions]. M&A went on vacation. It was a combination
of the buyers all unable to buy, or in a bad mood, and the sellers
had over-inflated expectations of what their companies were worth.
Companies were too expensive or worthless or both. The market
has corrected. There is new technology out. There are opportunities
to buy great technology at the right price. This [Tangram acquisition]
is a great example of that. Other companies are shopping. We looked
at 50-60 deals. We think this a great technology for a really
good price. Over the next three to five years, we plan to do a
few of these. We also picked up over 200 new clients, including
25% of the Fortune 100, with such marquee names as Marriott, Prudential,
UBS, Unocal and Molex.
Natalie--What
is Tangram's great technology?
Marc--It's
like the flip side of what virus scanners do. Norton hunts down
the 6,000 potential viruses you might have. Tangram hunts down
the 30,000 software products you might have on your machine. The
top corporations have hundreds of thousands of computers. Big
organizations with 30,000-50,000 employees have 5-10,000 servers.
Odds are in the 1990s they completely lost track of what they
have or what it's running. How many copies of Oracle or Microsoft
Office do I have? A lot of people, like KaZaa, are on my network.
You can use the Tangram product, tell it what software to scan
for and it will find it. It will let you stop it. If you want
to prohibit people from using Kazaa, you scan it and outlaw it
on your network and people can't run the program.
Software companies
come in and do audits. You're licensed for 10,000, but you're
running 15,000. Independent users aren't criminals necessarily,
they're just doing what they think they should do to get the job
done. Tangram allows you to know what your employees are doing.
They haven't been aggressive about marketing, but we can do that.
It was a great price. It cost us less than 2% of our company in
terms of stock issuance in exchange for a really great technology.
NatalieÑLet's
examine the competition. How close a competitor was Think Dynamics,
a company that was recently purchased by IBM, and just how far
ahead is Opsware positioned in technology? How do you plan to
keep your competitive edge? Through R&D? Relationship building?
Ben--Think
Dynamics was not really a head-on competitor. We have almost none
of the same functionality. They're an adjacent company. The most
complicated Data Center Automation or utility computing turns
out to be automating the software stack that runs on these computers.
We know this from our Loudcloud experience. We are far and away
the highest value in the value stack. Think Dynamics is an interesting
product that targets a less expensive, less important problem.
NatalieÑYes,
but the fact that IBM purchased them, does that lend a name credibility
that Opsware, even with superior product, can't match?
Marc--Most
companies don't want to buy software from companies that are locked
into hardware. Oracle is the software people use. BEA is the application
server most people use. Companies like to buy important software
from independent companies. That's been the case for 20 years.
IBM used to have the complete lock on the industry. A company
owned by IBM or SUN has a harder time selling than people think
they would. It takes time to play out. Every time it happens,
everyone says IBM will dominate but it never happens that way.
These are really good companies. It doesn't say anything negative
about IBM or Sun. They're both great companies.
NatalieÑAfter
launching a technology IPO in March of 2001, skirting the rim
of bankruptcy in 2002 and turning cash positive in 2003, you two
could write the book on DOT COM survival strategies. Your deft
navigation of Loudcloud and Opsware through such a difficult climate
would indicate that you two could easily outperform the competition
in easier times. What are your secrets? Do you look back and say,
"We were geniuses for doing a 3rd round of financing
instead of debt offering? For selling out to our largest competitor?
For becoming a software business?" If you'd turned in a different
direction on any one of these pivotal moments, you might have
lost your companyÉ
Marc--I
don't know. An awful lot of successful technology companies ended
up being in a slightly different market than they started out
in. Microsoft started with programming tools, but came out with
operating system. Oracle started doing contracts for the CIA.
AOL started out as an online video gaming network. Intel was a
memory chip vendor until 1985, for 15 years. The history of this
stuff is that it often takes a while to figure out ultimately
what the real market is. Adaptability is key. If you ask Bill
Gates or Andy Grove, they say, you have to be able to adapt. You're
launching into the unknown. You're introducing something new.
You have very limited information. That, and be stubborn, extremely
stubborn.
Natalie--Why?
Marc--The
pressure you're under. You have to really want it to succeed.
For example, when you're making a change, you have to go back
to all of these people you made commitments to and explain that
everything you explained before is completely off the table. Our
stock price went from six dollars to 39 cents. You have to lay
people off. You have to do all of these really hard things to
do that. It's not that people can't intellectually do it. They
can't emotionally do it.
Ben--I
think that you have to be hardheaded. You can't listen to smart
people telling you how stupid you are. It's always your fault,
even if it's the environment or the markets have changed. Keep
working and trying to figure it out. The customers loved the offering.
Although we couldn't make it work on the services side, EDS can.
We had the software to make that work. All the things you do to
make your product good and make your customers happy, if you try
hard enough and stick with it long enough you can get the value
back.
Natalie--What
happens when the IPO market prices the company at $6.00 a share,
when earlier equity holders have paid $9.00?
Ben--The
thing you always have to keep in mind is that it's all relative.
Although the IPO was at $450 million and the C series was $700
million valuation, the rest of the market had fallen further.
The relative performance of the company was just fine. If you
talk to those guys [the C round investors], they'd say that they
were pretty happy in Opsware because it outperformed everything
else. They invested in management servers in 2001. That was a
bad sector. They got a good return for the sector they picked.
If they invested in Digex (bought by MCI), MFN (now Above Net),
Exodus, Digital Island (merged with Sandpiper Networks), WorldCom,
Williams Communications or any of those companies, they lost it
all. Losing 30% is good in that context. On the other hand, if
our value had gone down and the rest of the market had gone up,
they would have been pretty sore at me.
NatalieÑSo,
you stuck it out, and your stock price is back up to the IPO price
of March 2001.
Ben--Last
year was pretty good. Our stock went up 20X. We made some progress.
This year we've got lots of cash, customers, a bit of a name,
a great software product. It's the most relaxed I've felt going
into a year for about four years. That's good news for investors!
Good news if they bought the stock at 39 cents! Other people have
made a ton of money and done very well.
Natalie--
How's the climate in the boardroom these days, and is the boardroom
still named after Notorious BIG? What's the working relationship
between Marc (Chairman) and Ben (CEO)? Who has the final word
in the company, and how do the two of you lead the software dream
team that investors should buy into?
Marc--The
important thing is that we've known each other really well since
1995. So, we have just a really good personality fit. We get along
really well. In my experience, that's rare for people to get along
that well in a really stressful situation. We don't think the
same things, but we think in similar ways. Our minds are wired
the same way in terms of how we arrive at conclusions. We decided
to have a partnership where we would do the things we're better
at. Ben's better at running the business and managing employees.
I'm better at fundraising, marketing, sales, customer relationships,
technology, product planning. We split up the responsibilities
to have a lot more brute force. There's twice the bandwidth that
you usually have if there was only one of us. It's really different
to set up this kind of structure, but somebody has to be in charge.
The other person has to bow to their judgment when the hard calls
get made. For us, that's Ben. A lot of strong people are not really
willing to do that. I'm willing to do that with Ben.
NatalieÑThat
says a lot about trust.
Marc--Trust
and communication, which we think are closely related. When we
have something we disagree on, I'll present my case and all the
data to support it. He'll present his case. One of us always comes
around to the other's point of view. Part of it is that we're
both engineers. We both have computer science degrees. That's
how we think. If his data contradicts my assumptions, I'm going
to listen to that. It's hard to do that with people who think
emotionally. A lot of people think in terms of people, emotions,
and feelings. That's more complicated. Engineering mentality makes
it, in theory, a little easier. The only thing either one of us
care about is the company succeeding. I don't need to be the CEO.
He doesn't need to push me out. A lot of times, the CEO tries
to box out the founder. We don't have the insecurity like that.
Ben--We're
extremely good friends. We've been working together for nine years.
Friends like Marc I can count on a peace sign. One to two.
NatalieÑYour
boardrooms are named after rap artists and your software is named
after Lao-Tzu's philosophy. Sounds like a recipe for anarchy.
Do you keep the Zen, tea drinkers on one side of the company and
the pot-smoking potty mouths on the other?
Ben--We
sold the Notorious BIG boardroom to EDS. We've got the Run DMC
conference room. We've got Tupac, Ice Cube, Snoop Dog.
NatalieÑCan
a white-collar technology geek like you really be into rap?
Ben--When
we started the company, a lot of the employees were rap fans.
I'm a rap fan.
Marc--Ben
knows hip-hop encyclopedically. He is comprehensive on the topic.
Ben has a Lincoln Navigator with the biggest sub-woofers I've
ever seen in my life. Other people quote Greek philosophers. He'll
quote rappers for his management lessons.
Ben--It
takes the edge off things. We're in a serious business with serious
issues. It's nice not to have the conference rooms be a reminder
of that. There were a lot of killings in rap. We stay away from
that. We just have the conference rooms.
Marc--
As for "the Way" and those names, that was Tim Howe's
engineering staff. They got off on that track early on. They are
good names, quite descriptive, but they're not official names.
The engineers get in front of customers, and the customers say,
"What is this? A cult?" Then the official names don't
take because they're not as interesting.
Ben--We've
got the Way, the Truth, the Word. The Way is the interface into
the Truth. The Truth has all of the knowledge about what should
be the Word. The Word contains what is. Our engineering team gets
religious about their products. The Spin is another axis into
the Truth.
NatalieÑBack
to the real world of numbers. You say you're cash positive, but
the quarterly report shows a net loss of -$2 million, reduced
from -$3.1M last quarter. Net revenue was $5 million, up from
$4.3 million last quarter. Cash resources of $56 million.
Ben--The
P and L net loss is representative of the way we do accounting,
rather than the way we actually do business. Cash flow from operations
was positive. That was true last quarter as well. Because we're
a new software company, we are required to recognize revenue over
the term of the maintenance agreement. Normally you sign the deal
and get the money up front.
NatalieÑPositively,
absolutely cash breakeven right now?
Ben--That's
right! We're throwing off cash! We used to lose a lot of money.
Not any more.
NatalieÑDo
you have to keep Marc separated from the employees? He's been
described as mercurial.
Ben--Marc
is a brilliant guy. You'd be hard pressed to find a better strategist
than Marc. He invented the web browser! AOL would listen to every
speech he made and copy it. He's one of the best in the world.
He's also a very famous guy. He's effective in getting us meetings
and sales calls. He's not a manager, but that's okay. I can do
that.
NatalieÑYou've
been described as the kind of guy employees would walk through
fire for. Is "not a manager" a euphemism for enfant
terrible (a characterization of Marc made by another writer).
BenÑ[Marc]
gets real excited but that's good. It's good to have people who
get excited around. He keeps the intensity high. Marc doesn't
have a high tolerance for sloppy thinking.
NatalieÑLast
words?
Ben--We're
really pleased with business. Happy to come off of a good quarter.
Happy to have made our 1st acquisition, which we think
will turn out really well. We are certainly happy to be making
money.
Natalie--We're
happy to set our calendars to year-end 2007, to see if our predictions
about the future of Opsware, Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz,
come true!
Full Disclosure:
Natalie Pace owns shares of Opsware.
|
|
Leaders
of the Pack: iSophia's featured companies outperformed the markets
again last year.
Five companies more than doubled and one brought 21X returns.
Catch up on our top 14 picks, and the secrets to our success.
iSophia's
formula for success? Pick the leader in the sector. Make sure
the company is run by ethical visionaries who create great products
and have an ear open to their customers. Never pay retail! Growth
AND value matter. We feature the companies that catch our eye,
but recommend that you buy the companies that catch yours. Why?
Because the formula for strong gains is "buy low, sell high."
If you pick a company that you don't know anything about or understand,
how are you going to evaluate whether the company is peaking or
falling behind? Also, if you care about a product or a company,
chances are that your eyes and ears will perk up when there's
a news flash. Bottom line? Invest with your heart, but add your
brain. If you don't understand a company or its product, do what
Warren Buffett would do. Turn your attention to something that
you do understand. Warren is one of the richest guys on the planet,
and, even though Bill Gates is reportedly a friend, Warren is
notorious for avoiding NASDAQ altogether.
So, how well
did our writers pick the leaders of the market and, more importantly,
should you buy into any of these companies now, or did you miss
the run? We'll do our best, as always, to give you the latest
news and trends, and then, dear friend, you be the judge. Below
is a rundown of the featured companies and their gains. Click
here to go to a complete report card, with additional information
to inform your buy and sell decisions.
Companies
featured December 2002 through June 2003.
|
Company
|
Symbol
|
12.26.03
price
|
Feature
Date
|
Price
(when featured)
|
Gains
|
|
Opsware
|
OPSW
|
6.57
|
12.15.2002
|
1.80
|
365%
|
|
Taser
International
|
TASR
|
87.19
|
1.01.2003
|
4.14
|
2,106%
|
|
Bennett
Environmental
|
BEL
|
21.18
|
1.15.2003
|
6.99
|
303%
|
|
Genentech
|
DNA
|
94.63
|
2.01.2003
|
37.81
|
250%
|
|
Goldcorp
|
GG
|
15.79
|
3.01.2003
|
11.25
|
40.36%
|
|
Overstock
|
OSTK
|
20.90
|
4.1.2003
|
10.50
|
99%
|
|
LeapFrog
|
LF
|
27.21
|
5.15.2003
|
25.95
|
4.8%
|
These are
companies that have had, for the most part, a very healthy run
over the last six months. If you bought when we featured them,
you might consider profit taking (but not before evaluating their
future potential and whether or not the markets are going to continue
their run). As you can see most of these companies are sporting
substantial gains! If you want to finish out the Bull Run before
profit taking, we highly recommend that you read the "Santa
Rally" article, written by Paul Woods, in e-zine 43. Historically,
January tends to be a very strong month. Click
here to go directly to Paul Wood's article:
Companies
featured July 2003 through December 2003.
|
Company
|
Symbol
|
12.26.03
price
|
Feature
Date
|
Price
(when featured)
|
Gains
|
|
Real
Networks
|
RNWK
|
5.20
|
8.1.2003
|
6.13
|
-15%
|
|
Net
Gear
|
NTGR
|
15.60
|
9.1.2003
|
17.87
|
-12.7%
|
|
Jet
Blue
|
JBLU
|
26.85
|
9.15.2003
|
38.06
|
-29.4%
|
|
AU
Optronics
|
AUO
|
11.62
|
10.01.2003
|
12.72
|
-8.6%
|
|
Reebok
|
RBK
|
39.17
|
11.01.2003
|
38.97
|
+.5%
|
|
Medicis
|
MRX
|
70.61
|
11.15.2003
|
68.09
|
+3.7%
|
|
Sony
Corp.
|
SNE
|
34.30
|
12.01.2003
|
33.85
|
+1.3%
|
The above-listed
stocks are companies that have not had time to rally. If you bought
when we featured them, you might consider waiting for their gains
to kick in. If you haven't yet bought into your favorite of these
companies, you might consider reading iSophia's feature articles
on the companies (go to our archived e-zines) and doing a little
investigative work on your own, including sampling the product
yourself! Many of these companies are trading near or below the
share price when we featured them, which, in our estimation, means
the share price is reasonable. We're not the only ones with that
opinion. Of the seven companies listed above, three are considered
to be undervalued when compared to growth, by Money Central, namely
Jet Blue, AU Optronics and Sony. These are all companies that
are leading a new market, on the verge of a very promising new
product or poised to take the lead (in our eyes) in their blue-chip
sector. FYI: Jet Blue is trading 29.4% lower than it was when
we featured the airline (and considered them to have tremendous
growth potential), This month Jet Blue, with its new lean share
price, saw a large increase in institutional investment and a
BUY rating from Merrill Lynch.
Bottom line:
Last year it paid off big-time to read iSophia's e-zines. If
you'd like to become a member and ensure that you receive all
of the latest feature articles, click
here. $4.50 a month, the price of a grande latte, gives
you a whole lot of BUZZ for your BUCK!
Full disclosure:
Natalie Pace, the writer of this article and chief strategist
for the iSophia bimonthly picks, owns shares and/or positions
in the following companies: Opsware, Bennett Environmental, Net
Gear, Jet Blue and Sony.
Disclaimer:
iSophia is not a broker, and does not operate or act as such.
|
|
Bull
Run 2004?
Predictions
from the ProsÉ with a Rebuttal from the Bears.
The
Bulls Make Their Case All Over the Internet:
- "With
low interest rates and low inflation and growth on pace to be
about 4% in the fourth quarter, I think the market has more
room to run." Meri Anne Beck-Woods, CFO,
bond expert, Odyssey Advisors
- "Stocks
are still reasonably valued relative to interest rates and earnings
estimates are still being revised upward for next year. If I
had to bet, I'd say stocks will have a decent year in 2004."
Paul Woods, CEO, equity expert, Odyssey Advisors
- "On
March 29, 1999, there were twice as many stocks hitting new
12-month lows as new highs on the New York Stock Exchange. Today,
the extreme opposite is true. This past week has averaged more
than 50 times more stocks hitting new highs as new lows on a
daily basis. Now that is strong bull-market leadership."
James B. Stack, InvesTech Research
- "China's
imports overall have risen dramatically over this year, from
approximately $25 billion per month a year ago to $33 billion
per month more recently, as China has become a major consumer
of the world's commodities. Doubtless, part of the recent firmness
in non-high-tech commodity prices is attributable to China's
voracious appetite for raw materials." Alan Greenspan,
Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board. Statement to the Committee
on Ways and means, U.S. House of Representatives, 10.30.2003.
(Doubtless the recent surge in NASDAQ is at least partially
attributable to China's voracious appetite for technology. During
the NASDAQ slump and the capital spending cut-off, companies,
like Intel, kept their revenues alive, by shipping cutting edge
technology directly overseas to Asia.)
- "The
majority of companies have cleaned up their balance sheets,
lowered their debt and cut costs dramatically so they are in
better shape for stronger earnings and easier earnings comparisons."
Meri Anne Beck-Woods, Odyssey Advisors
- "From
October 2002 through November of this year, Technology has been
the best-performing sector and has led the market recovery by
climbing 75.4% compared with a gain of 32.6% by the S&P
500É The recovery to date has been relatively broad-based across
all tech industries and across both low and high-quality issuesÉ
We believe technology investors will become more selective next
year, especially if economic growth, capital spending and employment
fall short of expectations." Keith L. Miller, Chee K.
Ooi, Daniel E. Cox, Smith Barney, Portfolio Strategist,
12.18.2003
- "Since
there has not yet been a major surge through chief equity strategist
Tobias Levkovich's year-end S&P 500 target of 1,075, he
believes the market's upward trend can be sustained into the
first quarter of 2004, and the overshoot of his target that
he has been expecting may still take placeÉ Industrial cyclicals
are still seen as the leaders of this positive momentum, along
with good small-cap performers." Mark Fulton,
Deputy Director of U.S. Equity Research, Smith Barney, Portfolio
Strategist
- "Chief
global strategist Matthew Merritt still sees equities as an
outperforming asset class next year, driven by global earnings
growth in the 10-15% rangeÉSmall-cap outperformance has been
a global phenomenon, and we remain positive on this trend. Our
theme of international diversification remains intact, particularly
given a shaky medium-term outlook for the U.S. dollar."
Mark Fulton, Deputy Director of U.S. Equity Research,
Smith Barney, Portfolio Strategist
- "A
sound economy means that REITs should find it easier to maintain
and raise their dividends (which in general don't qualify for
favorable tax treatment). But after four successive years of
positive returns (with double-digit gains in three of those
years), yields on property-owning REITs have dropped to 6%,
on average. At that level, many investors often start to bail
out of REITs." Jeffrey R. Kosnett, Kiplinger
- Analysts
see profits jumping an average of 12% in 2004, according to
Thomson First Call.
- "Even
with the 2003 price advance, stocks are not expensive. The S&P
500 sells for 18 times the 2004 consensus of analysts' profit
estimates. For much of the 1990s, by contrast, the market's
price-earnings ratio fluttered in the 20s, despite higher interest
rates and inflation." Jeffrey R. Kosnett,
Kiplinger
- "As
long as interest rates are low and inflation is not a problem,
the economy won't go awryÉ " Gordon Halcomb, financial
adviser, Mechanicsville, VA
BEAR
REBUTTAL:
Though
you can throw a dart at any financial web-site and find a bull
analyst touting the robust recovery, under-reported earnings growth
and positive outlook for at least the first quarter 2004, the
BEAR argument has some pointedly sharp facts upon which to rest
their belief in a major pullback next year.*
- Corporations
and individuals are drowning in debt.
- No more
Free Money. Bush has given out all the rebates he can give,
Alan Greenspan has kept interest rates as low as they can go
and defense spending has likely reached its Congressional cap.
(Of course, President Bush's six point economic stimulus plan
might provide additional relief, if at first only psychological,
to small business owners who are largely responsible for creating
new jobs in America these days. Bush is promoting: Making
health care costs more affordable and predictable; Reducing
the burden of lawsuits on our economy; Ensuring an affordable,
reliable energy supply; Streamlining regulations and paperwork
requirements; Opening new markets for American products; and
Enabling families and businesses to plan for the future with
confidence by making tax reductions permanent.)
- No more
borrowed money. Commercial banks are cutting back on lending
money and companies are cutting back on borrowing, leaving less
money floating around for speculative investments
- The heroic
U.S. consumer, who performed swimmingly over the last three
years, is drowning in personal debt.
- Weak top
line growth at U.S. companies. Most of the revenue growth is
as a result of cost-cutting policies, rather than real top-line
sales growth.
- Salaries
have been declining for three years. Wal-Mart said it's seeing
an unusual surge of sales on the 15th of the month as their
customers appear to be living from check to check, according
to Jon Markman, MoneyCentral regular contributor.
iSophia researchers
are working on an article comparing macro trends for election
years. If you're wondering what history says about a 2004 rally,
be sure to stay tuned into future iSophia e-zines. And remember,
despite all of the predictions in the world, one national natural
disaster, like 9.11.2001, will drag the markets down overnight.
Profits are a good thing. If you're in a position to walk away
from the table with huge returns, perhaps because you bought in
last October when nobody went near the markets, make sure there
is ample reason to keep your gains on the table. Don't neglect
to cash in your chips. It's the most common mistake made by investors.
*For more
information on "Why Bears See a 5,000 DOW," written
by Jon Markman, go to:
http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P66463.asp?special=dow10K

|
|
Girl's
Guide to Profit Taking?
Don't let
fear of taxes be the death of your capital gains! By Meri Anne
Beck-Woods and Natalie Pace
Want to start
the New Year off with a bang by taking some of the profits run
up in 2003 by NASDAQ (+50.04% on the NASDAQ Composite Index) and
NYSE (+27.74% on both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the
S&P 500 Index)? Are you letting fear of taxes rule your decision-making?
Many of us are concerned with the tax ramifications of profit
taking. It's imperative to always check with your accountant
BEFORE selling your assets to get a heads-up on the tax consequences.
However, excessive FEAR OF TAXATION can cost you big-time capital
gains, especially if you don't act when the profits have reached
their high!
With the NASDAQ
up nearly 70% and the S&P 500 up nearly 40% from their 2002
lows, many investors are in a position of taking some seriously
delicious stock gains that have not been seen since the roaring
90's that had everyone believing they should quit their job to
become day-traders, where millions were there for the taking.
On December 29, 2003, 1061 stocks hit new 52-week highs, while
only 95 stocks hit new lows. All in all, 2003 was a great year
for the stock market and a welcome change from the previous three
years.
President
Bush has made it more attractive to buy and sell stocks for US
taxpayers, providing you don't buy and sell in the same 12-month
period.
The Jobs
and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003 that passed
Congress by a whisker on May 23rd of 2003 is good news for both
long and short-term stock market gains. First, for short-term
gains, which are taxed at your ordinary income rate, the individual
rate cuts in the 2001 Bush Tax Cut are accelerated and now become
effective on Jan 1, 2003. Previously, the tax cuts were not supposed
to become effective until 2004 and 2006. The 38.6% maximum rate
goes to 35%. The 35% rate is lowered to 33% while the 30% rate
becomes 28% and the 27% rate goes to 25%. The existing 10% and
15% rates are unchanged. For more on "What the Bush Tax Cut
Means for You" go to www.SmartMoney.com
and check out the article with that title. They also have tax
calculators that can show you how much money you will save under
the new tax rules, a list of the various rules and information
on how the rules will apply to Marriage Penalty relief, the Alternative-Minimum
Tax, and other aspects of the legislation.
Long-term
capital gains received the most relief under the 2003 Act! Now,
long-term capital gains from sales on or after May 6, 2003, will
be taxed at a 15% rate instead of 20% in the highest tax bracket,
and only 5% for those in the 10% or 15% bracket, up until
2008, when that rate goes to 0% for one year. Then, unless Congress
does something else, we go back to the old pre-2003 rates that
are higher.
Note: REITs
are not typically subject to favorable tax treatment. If you have
a world class coin collection and decide to reap a long term gain
you will pay a 28% maximum rate, 25% on real estate, and ordinary
tax rates on distributions from SEP, Keogh, and 401K accounts.
Canadian iSophia members: Please check with the Canadian Revenue
Authorities for the current capital gains tax laws of Canada.
Bottom line: Always check with your accountant.
US
CAPITAL GAINS OVERVIEW:
- If you
buy and sell stock in the same year, the profits you make are
subject to your personal income tax rate.
- If you
buy and sell stock after holding the investment for over 12
months, the capital gains tax is 15%.
The IMPORTANT THINGS TO REMEMBER ARE THAT GAINS ARE GOOD, and
SELLING HIGH is ALMOST ALWAYS more PROFITABLE (except in the short
term gains situation), EVEN CONSIDERING CAPITAL GAINS TAXES, than
waiting for the stock to fall before you sell. This seems like
a no-brainer, but many investors use the excuse that they don't
want to pay taxes as a reason not to sell a stock that has hit
its high. Here's a news flash! You'll still have to pay taxes
when the share price falls. More importantly, stock prices can
have a wide range during a 52-week period. It makes sense to pocket
some of that gain before it evaporates, even if it means paying
taxes at either ordinary income tax rates or the 15% long-term
capital gains tax rate.
The
Climb Uphill is Rough, but the Fall is Steep
Here's another
important consideration for would-be profit-takers. Did you know
that stocks fall twice as fast (or faster) as they climb, even
under the most benign of market volatility conditions? Cash in
hand profit-taking is what separates the novices from the professionals,
who understand that WHEN you buy and sell is just as important
as WHAT you buy and sell.
Let's apply
the capital gains tax to Brightpoint (NASDAQ: CELL) in a real-world
scenario, to show you how you can SELL HIGH, PAY TAXES and still
WIN BIG by profit taking.
In December
2003, Brightpoint closed substantially lower than the gains investors
were looking at just two months prior, in October. The Brightpoint
share price popped after the 3Q 2003 Brightpoint earnings report
showed a 58% increase in revenue and a 178% increase in operating
income over 3Q 2002. On Halloween, CELL shares were trading
at $30 each, for a value of $30,000, if you owned 1000 shares.
By 12.26.2003, the value of 1,000 shares of CELL stock had fallen
off by almost half (42.3%) to $17,310.00. If the investor SOLD
high in October AND PAID taxes, s/he would have pocketed at least
27% more than the December 2003 value of her CELL stock, based
upon the 15% capital gains tax rate. See below for the numbers.
- Brightpoint
hit 52-week high of $30 for $30,000 value on 1000 shares.
- If you
bought CELL in June of 2002, when the company did a 7:1 reverse
split to avoid delisting from NASDAQ, your buy-in for 1000 current
shares was $1,000. (The stock has had two 3:2 splits since June
2002.)
- 15% capital
gains tax on $29,000 profit is $4,350. ($29,000 is your
profit after subtracting your initial investment of $1,000.
You also need to subtract your trading fees.)
- Your profit
after 15% capital gains tax is $24,650.
- Waiting
to sell cost you $7,340 (based upon the 12.26.2003 price of
$17.31 share).
No one has
a crystal ball, but there are a few reliable tips that are touted
by professional money managers. Rance Masheck says, "Don't
buy into a stock that has hit it's first high in a long period
of time. Holders are going to jump ship!" This advice should
be remembered when profit-taking also. Brightpoint had two dismal
years when NASDAQ and the economy fell out in 2000. During that
time, the company was the subject of an SEC investigation, restated
earnings, was sued by shareholders and barely beat a NASDAQ delisting
with a 7:1 reverse split. Not surprisingly, when things turned
around for Brightpoint in 2003 and the stock price soared by 29X,
the insiders, who had been beaten down for years, began jumping
ship!
There is a
laundry list of insiders who sold CELL in the last quarter of
this year. Robert Laikin, CELL's Chairman and CEO, sold
$9 million worth of CELL in December, reducing his shares to just
100,000, per MoneyCentral.msn.com. Brightpoint's President James
Mark Howell dumped $8 million, with just 25,769 shares left in
his account.
It's difficult
to foresee the individual (and rapid) pullbacks that occur on
stocks, like Brightpoint, which previously were the standout leaders
of a robust market year. If your goal is to increase your net
worth, however, remember that GAINS ARE ALWAYS GOOD! You don't
have to buy at the bottom and sell at the pinnacle to achieve
admirable gains. 29X returns look good on any balance sheet, even
an accountant's! Don't let fear of taxes be the death of your
profits! And let's hope we have a continued problem of when to
take gains in 2004. Happy New Year! Rock on!
|
|
Q
& A with Money Managers:
Q&A
with money managers: Paul
Woods, Tom Weary and Meri Anne Beck-Woods.
You
can reach these advisors directly by calling or emailing.
Paul Woods,
CEO
Odyssey Advisors.
310.568.4700.
pwoods@odysseyadvisors.com
Tom Weary,
CEO
Diamond Portfolio Advisors.
tom@diamondportfolio.net
Meri Anne
Beck-Woods, CFO
Odyssey Advisors.
310.568.4700.
mabwoods@odysseyadvisors.com
Select questions
from the iSophia Members Only Chat on December 17, 2003.
Question:
What sectors in general will be strong going into next year?
Paul:
With a strong economy, economically sensitive companies with earnings
tied to the business cycle, like retailers, technology, industrial
materials, transportation, etc. should continue to do better than
others. Sectors tied to capital spending.
Question:
Bristol-Myer Squibb? What do you think about Erbitux being on
the fast track with the US FDA and Canada's equivalent? With ImClone's
executive suite missing all three founding executives, do you
think that BMY is preparing to eat up ImClone? Is BMY's stock
poised to pop?
Paul:
I think they're still waiting to see if the FDA approves the drug.
Tom:
They can't seem to get out of their own way at BMY. I'd avoid
it.
Paul:
I agree with Tom. BMY's accounting is notoriously creative.
Comment:
BMY has certainly gotten their fair share of SEC attention over
the last three years. I'm not sure I like it in the long-term,
but we've seen, in companies like Genentech (NYSE: DNA), how an
FDA approval can cause the share price to double or triple in
a few weeks.
Paul:
The only good thing about BMY is a high dividend yield.
Question:
What about interest rates? A number of pros think the Feds will
wait until post-election to raise rates. What is your consensus?
Paul:
The problem is that short-term interest rates are too low, even
lower than inflation. It's putting pressure on the dollar and
the Fed may have to do something about it before the election.
Meri
Anne: I think interest rates will start to creep up before
the election, but as long as inflation remains tame, it won't
be a big move.
Question:
Will low yields in the bond markets continue to drive investors
over to stocks?
Meri
Anne: Bond yields and expected returns are lower than
stock market returns, even if they are conservative.
|
|
Beauty's
Next Big Thing: Non-Surgical Face Lifts.
Save
yourself tens of thousands of dollars and a whole lot of pain
and bruising.
 |
|
Lori
Hart
Owner, Lori Hart Facial Spa in Marina del Rey, California
www.LoriHart.com
|
In Oscar Wilde's
The Picture of Dorian Gray, only creeps become ugly as
they age. Unfortunately, in the real world, gravity, the sun,
smoking, makeup, sun block, no sun block, having kids and just
about everything else you do adds up to the same wrinkling and
jowling as being a creep. Thank heaven for Lori Hart, who has
found a way to stimulate your face and neck into thinking young
again, with the subtle tingle of micro electrical currents. Her
non-surgical face-lifts and mineral-based makeup can safely and
effectively take years off of your face, without the exorbitant
expense, pain, bruising and potential for a botched-up job (like
so many celebrities we've seenÑMichael Jackson!).
From the moment
you step into Lori's Marina del Rey salon, you rue the caffeine
frenzy you threw your body in to greet the day. In a vintage Hollywood
salon that is worthy of Marlene Dietrich, , complete with movie
posters and Sinatra kicking up the swing, Hart's staff begins
by pampering you with herbal tea. Lori herself, at 50, looks like
a woman who could only have been created under the most skillful
surgeon's knife, and is, beyond doubt, her own best evidence of
the efficacy of the non-surgical face lift and the facial products
that she sells.
No matter
where you live in the United States or in Canada, you owe it to
yourself to call Lori FIRST before considering a face-lift. Even
if you are merely thinking Botox and collagen to ease wrinkles
and those nasty deep lines between the nose and the mouth, CALL
LORI FIRST. Your face is far too beautiful a thing to waste beneath
the massive threat of the elements and time, and you can train
the cells, with the help of electrical impulse, to THINK YOUNGER,
lifting, instead of filling, to eliminate wrinkles and jowling.
You'll love
Lori's pampering, the "Hollywood" royal treatment and
you could come away looking ten years younger without plunking
down ten grand plus! For more information on non-surgical face-lifts
and natural "mineral-based" makeup, contact Lori Hart
at www.lorihart.com or
310.574.3990.

|
|
iSophia's
Non-Profit COMPANY OF THE YEAR:
Co-Abode.com
is a national, non-profit organization where single mothers can
meet to share living space, resources, finances and child-rearing
duties. It's a mom-matching, house-sharing service giving women
and their children the opportunity to share a home and family
life together, often during tough transitions.
 |
|
Carmel
Boss with her son, Cooper
Founder, Co-Abode.com
Photo Credit: Merle Stern
|
Carmel Boss
originally launched Co-Abode as a for-profit enterprise, but after
learning that so many of her "customers" were going
through severe financial hardships, she pulled her company through
a very difficult transition to non-profit status. In 2003, Carmel
was honored by Parenting Magazine for positively impacting
the lives of thousands of single mothers across the United States.
Co-Abode.com is being honored by iSophia as the Non-Profit Company
of the Year not only because it is a brilliant solution to a growing
need, but also because Carmel Boss maneuvered the company through
the tough times of a failing for-profit business model, and secured
the non-profit funding that allowed this much-needed business
to continue and, hopefully, thrive. As a side note, iSophia's
founder , Natalie Pace, attributes the successful launch of her
company to the springboard that Co-Abode's service gave her.
"Co-Abode
was the launch pad for my current success," says Natalie.
Being a single mom, she felt that her fairy-tale had shattered,
her expenses doubled, and she was being pulled in 100,000 different
directions. Rooming with another mom lifted the burden from her
shoulders. "Having daily devastation removed from your world
allows you to dream." If you know of a single mother going
through a difficult time or transition, tell them to check out
Co-Abode at www.Co-Abode.com!
See below for an interview with Co-Abode's founder, Carmel Boss.
N.W.
Pace--Isn't it a great life! You've been able to continue
helping thousands of single mothers for three years now! What
an accomplishment. It's been quite a challenge to support the
operating costs for this venture, hasn't it?
Carmel--I
was thinking about that the other day. Most of the people | |